Firescape

Addressing the Increasing Threat of Wildfires

In November of 2018, the entire town of Paradise, California was consumed by the flames of a wildfire which started 12 miles away. Eventually it reached the urban area where it claimed the lives of five firefighters and 85 residents, as well as engulfing thousands of buildings and infrastructure within the town. The Camp Fire engulfed 153,336 acres and bankrupted the Pacific Gas and Energy company, because the cause of the fire was traced back to a worn metal hook holding up the insulators and transmission line which fell during the high winds (gusts up to 55 mph) and created an arc when it hit the metal tower¹. The arcing event heated the metal tower and conductor up to 5,000 to 10,000 °F, causing molten metal to fall onto the ground where it ignited surrounding vegetation.

The Camp Fire, and other electric-grid caused wildfires, show the magnitude of destruction these events can cause. It is critically important to know when and where to maintain electrical grid equipment where the first spark could turn into a devastating fire.

The fire that consumed the town of Paradise in 2018 is not an outlier. The combination of weather patterns, land use management practices and electric grid maintenance can create the perfect storm for catastrophic wildfire. Extended drought and high winds contribute to fuel curing and wildfire spread. A century of fire suppression and land management practices creates an abundance of fuel increasing wildfire severity.

The fire that consumed the town of Paradise is not an outlier

One of the many neighborhoods destroyed by the Camp Fire in 2018.

Justin Sullivan, Getty.

The Palisades Fire

The Palisades Fire in California is the most recent example of catastrophic wildfire, destroying over 10,000 homes and taking the lives of 24 people. Estimated damages range from $20 - 45 Billion according to Core Logic. Even areas considered at less risk of wildfire, such as beachfront homes surrounded by water on one side and a highway on the other with very little surrounding burnable vegetation, burned down. The strong Santa Ana winds reached 90 mph showering homes with embers transported from the flaming front of the fire.

The Palisades Fire portrays the unexpected destruction of wildfires that are a result of alignment of strong winds, prolonged drought, dense fuels and a spark at the right time. Southern California now experiences more high intensity Santa Ana wind events in December and January, a shift from historical frequencies in September and October². In addition, the area of the Palisades Fire has not received precipitation in eight months. The area normally get rain in the winter season, with February being the wettest month. The lack of rainfall makes the area significantly vulnerable to wildfires.

Oceanfront homes along the Sourthern coast of CA are burning.

CAL FIRE OFFICIAL, Wikimedia Commons.

Wildfires are a Billion Dollar Problem

Wildfires can cause billions of dollars in economic losses. If electric and gas companies are found liable, it can lead to financial ruin. The Pacific Gas and Electric company went bankrupt after being found liable for the Camp Fire in 2018. Wildfires can occur at unpredictable times, such as the time of year and drought an area is experiencing. The increase in erratic fire behavior is due to change in weather and wind patterns. Quickly spreading wildfires have common characteristics: high winds, unusual heat, and dry grass or brush.

Aftermath of the Marshall Fire, which was started by a broken power line.

Kevin J. Beaty, Denverite.

Catastrophic wildfires are continuing to occur outside of the typical season

Catastrophic wildfires don't just occur in forested areas. The Marshall Fire, which occurred on December 30th, 2021, started in a grassland It was started by power line that disconnected from the pole, lighting surrounding dry vegetation on fire. The fire spread quickly due to 50mph winds heading east into town. The strong winds were caused by what meteorologists describe as a mountain wave event. A mountain wave event occurs on the down-wind side of a mountain range, such as the Rocky Mountains and results in significant wind gusts in a localized area. There were 1,084 homes burnt in the Marshall Fire and 30 commercial buildings were impacted resulting in 2 billion dollars of damages.

Wildfires are occurring in locations not usually associated with wildfires, year after year

It is important to recognize that the Marshall Fire began in winter, a season not typically associated with wildfire, particularly in Colorado. Unusual weather conditions paired with a landscape ready to burn, are growing more common. The need for land management and electric grid maintenance to prevent fires is urgent. The threat of wildfire is not only present in California and Colorado, but is increasing across the U.S.

The town of Lahaina on the Hawaiian Island of Maui was also affected by the alignment of drought, strong winds, dense dry vegetation and mismanagement of electrical equipment. On the night of August 8th, 2023, a spark from a broken power line ignited on surrounding vegetation. The fire resulted in 102 fatalities, as well as 2,000 homes burnt³. The fire resulted in a $4 billion settlement between Hawaiian electric and land management companies, and the reparations of houses and commercial buildings is still ongoing nearly a year and a half later⁴. The drought and high wind speeds that created such a monstrous wildfire are another example of the changing climatic conditions can lead to catastrophic fire when there is the spark to light it.

The Waiola Church hall in Lahaina was destroyed in the Lahaina Fires in 2023.

Matthew Thayer, Maui News

Firescape's Platform: A Toolbox for Utilities

Firescape Inc., a company based in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is taking the initiative to predict fire conditions and help utilities stop them before they even begin. Using satellite imagery and data from over 50 sources including weather, vegetation density, and infrastructure data, Firescape's software program leverages advanced AI algorithms to predict wildfire potential, weather conditions, and “hotspots” where communities would be most affected by wildfires. By assessing impact of the fires from an electric grid asset, Firescape can model what mitigation would be most effective at reducing wildfire consequence. Firescape's platform can help utility companies mitigate wildfire before they cause damage.

Firescape's software shows the speed and direction of gusting winds. Wind plays a crucial role in the spread of fires, and tracking wind patterns is important to fire prevention.

With fire weather conditions becoming more common, the threat of wildfire is increasing. Careful monitoring of weather, vegetation and ignition probability is important to stay ahead of wildfire activity. Areas that have not typically seen wildfire activity could now increasingly start to encounter them. Now more than ever, it is critical to invest in fire awareness tools and have a mitigation plan.

Firescape's wildfire prediction layer shows where wildfires are most likely, and can be predicted as far out as five days.

Preventing electric grid caused catastrophic wildfire begins with eliminating ignitions. Shutting off power to areas in a high wildfire risk condition is an effective method to stop sparking events from occurring. However, they come at the cost of not providing reliable power to communities.

Firescape's platform enables utilities to balance risk with reliability

Firescape's software recommends which power lines should be shut off due to high fire risk. Roads displayed as a proxy for lines for demonstration purposes.

Mitigation investments are expensive, often a prioritized approach is necessary. Firescape uses wildfire simulation models to determine the effectiveness of each mitigation type and location to automatically determine the most optimized wildfire mitigation strategy. Mitigation types include grid hardening measures such as covered conductors, pole wrapping and installation of fault interrupters, as well as vegetation thinning along right-of-way corridors and fuels thinning along surrounding lands.

Firescape platform during an active fire.

Firescape predicts wildfires' impact on utility equipment and acres burnt.

References:

¹ The Camp Fire Public Report: A Summary of the Camp Fire Investigation (Report). Butte County District Attorney. June 16, 2020. Archived from the original on August 30, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.

² Keeley, Jon E., et al. “Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana Wind fires.” Science Advances, vol. 7, no. 30, 23 July 2021.

³ Pelletier, John. Maui Wildfires of August 8, 2023 Maui Police Department Preliminary After-Action Report, 9. Accessed Jan. 2025.

⁴ Green, Josh. “Office of the Governor - News Release - Gov. Green Announces $4 Billion Global Settlement in Principle to Resolve Maui Wildfire Lawsuits.” Office of the Governor, 2 Aug. 2024.